Projections in Japanese Coal Ash Energy Use

ASEAN Long-term Energy Path. Projections.

Over the past few years, the ASEAN Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) has reflected the trend of steady economic growth and the notable demographic developments of the region.

ASEAN as a region is a net energy exporter of fossil fuels, given the fact that the production of coal and natural gas substantially outweighs the region’s consumption, even though crude oil is imported to fulfil its supply requirements. With economic growth at 6.1% on average every year, while the population keeps expanding at the yearly average growth rate of nearly 1%, the ASEAN Centre for Energy’s (ACE)’s 4th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO4) forecasted that the demand for primary energy will grow by an average of 4.7% per year from 2013 to reach 1,685 Million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2035 under a Business as Usual (BAU) Scenario.

Figure 1. ASEAN Primary Energy Demand; Past and Projections Source: The 4 th ASEAN Energy Outlook, 2015

Furthermore, as the previous period witnessed oil with the major share, this trend is likely to shift in the following decade as the projected rapid growth in electricity consumption will be largely 7 met by coal-fired power generations. Whereas coal only accounted for 20.1% of the primary energy in 2013, coal demand is expected to have the highest increase among other fuel types, with a yearly average growth rate of 7.0%, thereby overshadowing the share of oil from 2025 and then fully take over to reach a 33% share in 2035, equivalent to 556 Mtoe. Backed by Indonesia, as one of the world’s major producers and exporters, coal is the major source to fulfil ASEAN sharp increase in the demand for energy for economic development.

Global Fly Ash market accounted for $2.80 billion in 2017 and is expected to reach $5.55 billion by 2026 growing at a CAGR of 7.9% during the forecast period. Increasing the focus on infrastructure and road paving, rapid expansion in the construction industry and endorsement of fly ash by governments in a variety of regions are some of the factors driving the growth of the market. However, harmful properties of fly ash and declining utilization of thermal power in the energy mix are hampering the market. Ecological-friendly construction product provides ample opportunity for the growth of the market. Fly ash is a kind of pozzolan formed by the flaming of pulverized coal.

The fly ash is a fine nebulous dust affluent in alumina and silica generated through a separation process such as electrostatic, mechanical etc. The fly ash is a major substance in the construction industry and used as an admixture. By type, Class F fly ash segment is experiencing considerable market growth owing to its extreme usage in mass concrete and high strength mixes. It is also applicable for concreting in summer as it moderates heat grows during concrete curing. The class is expected to grow due to the wide usage of fly ash in emerging countries such as China, India, Japan, the US, and Germany. This is the outcome of the rising focus of governments of the countries to augment consumption of fly ash for ecological reasons.

Figure 2. ASEAN Installed Capacity, Fuel-Based Projections Source: The 4 th ASEAN Energy Outlook, 2015

In terms of power generation, the value will increase from 821.1 TWh in 2013 to 1,743.2 TWh in 2025 and 2,883.7 TWh in 2035, equal to an average annual growth rate of 5.9%

The APAEC Phase I 2016-2020 continues to focus on the seven program areas and has five strategies: 1. Promote clean coal technologies for power generation to contribute to clean energy developmental and economic. 2. Increase the level of awareness of the public on the benefits of coal use. 3. Promote intra-ASEAN coal trade and increase investment in CCT. 4. Conduct policy research to enhance coal developmental and use and build capacity. 5. Establish a fully functional ASEAN Coal Database and Information System (ACDIS).

Resources:

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/5-5-bn-fly-ash-market—global-outlook—forecasts-to-2026—300786739.html

http://www.ecoba.com/evjm,media/who/ecoba_construction_Leaflet_10_15_web.pdf

Ksenia Kaplieva-analyst